thanks so much for joining us. 5:00, i'm laura garcia-cannon. >> i'm jon kelley. yes, indeed, a busy one. it is election day and millions of voters are heading out to the polls. vice president joe biden out there casting his vote. president obama voted back in october in his hometown of chicago. mitt romney and paul ryan all set to cast their votes and their ballots later on in their home states. they'll do that later this morning. from two hours from right now, california voters will get their turn. this election expected to draw a different crowd this year. today in the bay christie smith has more in oakland on how the internet is changing the face of this year's election. good morning. >> good morning to you, jon. online voter registration here in california has brought 600,000 new voters to this election alone. most of them are democrats, they're young. the different thing about them is that they are much less likely to vote along party

lines. according to the secretary of state, as of the october 22nd deadline, 18 million voters were registered. overall, new voters account for about 1.6 million of them. and a large majority are under 35 years old. again, half are democrats. 19% republicans and the rest just other. now, what we may notice today is that specifically beyond the presidential race, those might not vote along party lines. they tend to vote for the president and then leave other parts of the balt blank or just pick and choose as they go. for instance, just because many voters may support president obama, that may not translate into support for support for proposition 30, governor brown's tax measure to support school. right now we're at a polling place in oakland where governor brown is expected to come here and vote around 7:15 this morning. reporting live in oakland,

christie smith, "today in the bay." as californians go to the polls, they're asked to decide a number of propositions today. from education to the death penalty. joining us with some insight on these heavyweight ballot issues. good morning. >> we are talking about propositions 30, 36 and we have invited jim contra with department of political science. you're going to talk to us throughout the morning and thank you for being with us so early on this election day. >> happy to be here. >> we're going to start with proposition 30, which is governor brown's baby. a temporary tax initiative to fund education in this state. if it loses, a whole lot is at stake. >> indeed. governor brown has really staked his reputation on balancing the budget and he said when he ran for election he would make a difference on the budget and this is a big deal for him because this is the linchpin of

his plan. this is a major defeat for him and we're going to have to go through some very serious budget cuts and serious cuts to education, if this measure does not pass. so, it's very important to him and the people of california. >> $6 billion immediately to education cut just like that. >> yeah, it's very serious. for anyone who has children in the school system or who works for the school system, this is something they have been following with great interest. so, there's a lot at stake there. >> one of the most controversial propositions on the ballot is prop 34, the measure to repeal the death penalty. this isn't something that voters have seen before. in 2004 they defeated a similar proposition, 53 to 47%. >> right. this is an issue that has continued to be a hot button issue that is very close. it's about 50/50 it seems like for most people in support for the death penalty. one thing that has been brought up in this particular case is the cost to the taxpayers. people are worried about the budget deficit and studies have

shown that having the death penty costs more than life in prison because of all the appeals. >> only 13 inmates have been executed in the last 34 years. let's talk about prop 36, which would modify our three strikes law and prevent so-called weaker third strikes resulting in life sentences. >> right. that's another major criminal justice issue. one of my colleagues testified in sacramento about this and was basically making the argument that there's no evidence that this policy actually reduced crime. and the way it's been implemented, you know, in california, people who are guilty of very minor offenses for the third offense gets life in prison, which costs the taxpayers money. we are cited for overcrowded prison and having problems with our prison system and the idea of this measure to relieve some of that pressure and more sensible policy without making

people less safe. >> if it passes, we could see convictions overturned. >> my understanding is, yeah, we could have major change in the way that's applied and you would have some people who are not guilty of serious offenses basically getting some relief on that. >> okay, jim, you are not going anywhere. you are ours this morning, thanks, again. we'll talk to you, again. next time we'll hear from him and his thoughts on ohio and also get his presidential prediction. laura? >> exciting day, thank you very much. we have live election coverage all morning long and want you to know that the bay area investigative unit is monitoring voting in the bay area and if you have a problem at the polls today, we certainly want to hear about it. you can call our investigative tip line at 888-996-tips. or send us an e-mail to the unit@nbcb unit@nbcbayarea.com. we'll investigate all reports of voter irregularity and polling problems. hopefully there are none. 5:05 right now and we're

going to vote for some spectacular weather. sounds like mother nature has a forecast. christina loren. >> popular vote wins this one. 50 degrees in napa to start and right off the bat, temperatures are already very comfortable. 55 in san jose and 49 degrees in gilroy, expecting another fog-free start at the coast. temperatures beautiful 1k38 8. e 88 degrees in san jose and that's an indication of what happens when we get. the low clouds will return and drop your temperatures by 10 to 15 degrees but not as low as we are expected to dive by the end of the week. temperatures fall back into the 50s as highs and we're expecting pretty heavy rainfall at times. so, the moral of this story, enjoy the sunshine because it's not going to last much longer. 82 degrees bay side and 80 degrees at the coast.

what you will notice the low clouds returning as we head through this evening into tonight but our highs come in about 3:00 p.m. with our time change. your seven-day outlook ready to go. first one to check your drive on a big election tuesday with mike. >> also a traffic tuesday and we're voting for clear roads, but probably not going to get them. looking at east shore freeway, we're doing good right now with headlights westbound your commute direction underneath the university bridge and make the silhouette out there. looking further south, 880, the commute direction and no problems in that direction, but the accident northbound, that is on the countercommute direction heading up towards 228 and sounds like up to the shoulder and two cars involved and one of the people involved can't get out of their car. doesn't mean it's over on its side, the door might just be wedged. we're also following this, that earlier fire that was reported underneath the north livermore overpass and no further details and clearing that from the incident report and a smoother

drive heading westbound and commute direction through livermore and southbound 680. back to you. >> thank you very much, mike. our decision 2012 coverage continues, next. take you live to ohio for a look at what the presidential candidates are doing today. a poison pill, we'll explain that coming up in business news. ♪

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that's elizabeth.n. and that's skyler... and his mom, nancy. they're just a few of the californians who took it on themselves to send you a message about what they need to restore years of cuts to their schools. prop thirty-eight. thirty-eight raises billions in new revenue - bypasses sacramento and sends every k through 12 dollar straight to our local schools... every school. for them. for all of us. vote yes on thirty-eight. he's a man who disappeared while taking a walk along a hillside. today in the bay bob redell spoke to the family about new information about this search. good morning. >> good morning, we're outside george slider's home retired nuclear engineer.

he's 74 years old and we put his picture up on the screen and he went missing, he disappeared on sunday in the aptos hills area. he was at the retreat center, he was there for a church retreat. people saw him around 9:15 that morning and then he disappeared. the last sighting was about a mile or two away on the other side of the area and that was 10:30 that morning when he asked people for direction to get back to the retreat center. his wife, good morning to you. >> good morning. >> what do you think happened to your husband? >> i'm thererizing that he went for a quick meditation or walk because he had a little bit of time left before he had to go to the final closing services that they were going to have and he tends to lose track of time. so, i'm assuming that he got turned around and was rushing back to where he's supposed to be and probably took a wrong turn at some place. >> we were talking earlier, we said maybe he's settling down

and waiting for people to find him. but you don't think he's that type. >> at this point, he's been out for two nights and he's exhausted and we're hoping he is settling down. according to the sheriff searchers, the pattern they're seeing. he's moving ahead of everybody trying to frantically get back. >> he's an avid walker? >> yes. >> i know you're going with your family out there later this morning to help with the search. what would you like people at home to do, if there is anything they can do? >> we would like people who were in the parks on sunday to take a good look at his picture and see if they remember anything because the park is very popular and full of people. if you remember anything, call 911. if you're going about your regular duties and you see something, call 911. >> kathleen, thank you very much. we had his picture up on the screen. 74 years old, you saw his white hair and 195 pounds and about 5'11", does that sound about right? >> yeah. >> bob redell, today in the bay.

now moving on to decision day 2012. the race is in the hands of the voters. 30 million americans have already cast their ballot and the rest get their chance today. the presidential candidates keeping a close watch. today in the bay's tracie potts watching decision 2012 from cincinnati, ohio. the battleground state that could be critical in deciding this very tight presidential race. good morning. >> laura, good morning. we're at a polling place that has been busy since before it opened. there's the door and, actually, someone is going in right now. they've been back and forth all morning. 30, 40 people standing in line before this polling place even opened. it's been open about an hour and a half, a little over an hour and a half now. we're watching not only the voters, but also the candidates. today, governor romney voting and then going to pennsylvania and ohio to thank campaign workers. not a big rally the campaign says, but he just wants to thank some of those workers in the key

states in battleground states in pennsylvania perhaps being considered with those. he hopes he can win. meantime, president obama wakes up back home in chicago. pl planning to play a little basketball before he watches. groups that have supported him in the past. laura? >> thank you very much, tracie. moving on. 5:14. netflix says it's ready to fight off a takeover attempt. scott says this is a poison pill. >> poison pill. netflix isn't saying who the pill is for. icon bought out a little less than 10% in an attempt to cause a huge shakeup even a takeover. but new rules established last noit by netflix says if a person buys up a full 10% special rules

take effect creating more netflix stock. hopefully this will prevent a haasile takeover, the board hopes. a company can create shares out of itself as often as it wishes. they don't do that because it dilutes the shares that are out there. if somebody, say carl icahn is buying up your company, you can make more of your company up for him to buy. best of seven wins the world series and when your opponent is up 3-0, it is best of nine. the other team can't win because you keep changing the rules. moving on. traditionally today, election day, quiet on wall street as investors adopt a wait and see attitude. jackie deangeles is monitoring everything at cnbc headquarters. good morning, jackie. >> good morning, scott. the stock futures are slightly higher this morning after, as you said, the markets didn't move much yesterday.

investigators pretty much cautious right now not wanting to take any position ahead of the outcome. not expecting any major economic data and just a handful of earnings will come out and some of the media companies will be in focus like aol and news corp. yesterday we saw the dow rising 19 points and the nasdaq was up 17 and closing at 2999. meantime, market watchers are considering what sectors could do well under a mitt romney or a barack obama presidency. for romney, they're saying that banks could do the best. he may try to roll back some of those financial reforms. for obama, analysts are saying that health care and green energy related companies, those are the ones that could outperform. wall street may prefer to have a democrat in the white house. since 1901, the dow has averaged a 74% return during a democrat's term compared with 47% when republicans have been in office. so, all eyes, of course, will be on tonight. scott? >> all right, jackie deangeles, thank you much. speaking of green energy, it has turned the corner.

we'll take a look at that coming up. >> all right, sounds good. couldn't hear it because of the electric. >> oh, smooth flow. >> too early. >> look forward to that, scott, thank you. christina loren is here and perfect day for people to get out and vote. >> really perfect. typically funny things can happen on election day and no excuses for today. the weather is going to be perfect, just like yesterday. want to talk about some of the record coastal heat we saw yesterday setting records just about everywhere at the coast. very usual for the first full week of november to get close to 90 degrees in places like santa cruz. but it happened yesterday. just a touch cooler for today. 88 degrees in santa cruz yesterday and bodega bay hit 84 and san francisco downtown hit 81 degrees and at the airport 78 and the locals out there in half

moon bay were sweating a little bit. if you're looking forward to the the rain that traditionally accompanies fall, you're going to get that as we head through thursday and friday. 50 in napa and 51 in livermore and 49 in gilroy to start. high pressure is in control. it's driving our wind off shore. so, they're warming as they pump from land to sea. we're getting the northeasterly winds. for today, high pressure will start to weaken just a touch. as we head through the second half of the day and bring the low clouds in earlier. in fact, we haven't seen the low clouds for the past 48 hours. they'll be in by 5:00 p.m. at the coast. 86 degrees in livermore and 82 degrees in san jose. and 80 today in san francisco. it's going to be another unusually warm day and then temperatures drop like a rock as we head through tomorrow. upper 70s return. we're in the 50s. bayside and at the coast as we get into friday and saturday. expect heavy rain and possibly thunderstorms and snow levels falling to 2,500 feet. it's going to get interesting around here.

let's check on your drive and see how uninteresting or heavy that's getting. hey, mike. >> hey, nice and boring. the drive right now still focus. we're looking over here. the south bay routes and the yellow on the maps, speeds coming down to 60 and not a major concern. light volume. activity remains north 101 as you approach oakland road, an earlier big rig went into the center divide and stay over to your right. sounds like police there and also a couple of folks talking about which tow truck will take it. again, so, they need a special one and that might be a little while for that destruction but off of the freeway itself, which is blocking part of that onramp. now, as we're moving further north, 880 just passing a street and two cars involved over on the right shoulder but more distraction as an ambulance has been called and minor injuries and flashing lights. let's look at the toll plaza

because we see slowing on the map but from the toll plaza westbound nice, easy drive and eastbound similar volume of traffic and you can see the high rise. nice view across the bay and look to the north bay and we look to the peninsula where we're looking at a nice, smooth drive for 101. easy flow and san mateo into the city or out of the city and from san raphael a similar volume of traffic southward and clear view and no problems for clouds or fog and we'll look over to emeryville the berkeley curve heading over towards the bay bridge toll plaza. and then coming off of 880 or 580. back to you. >> thank you very much, mike. closing arguments begin today for a suspect accused of a deadly shooting rampage at the richmond san raphael toll plaza. nathan burris is accused of gunning down his ex-girlfriend and her friend back in august of 2009. during a bizarre testimony

yesterday, burris told jurors to hurry up and find him guilty so he could watch monday night football. he also giggled and cursed the people he allegedly killed. if found guilty, he faces the possibility of the death penalty. san mateo county sheriffs searching for two people who are trying to kidnap a young boy. this all happened this past saturday at a home near sharon hills. a man driving a van pulled up to a boy who was playing in his front yard. a female officer offered him candy. the boy's mother walked towards him and the suspect sped off. investigators say the pair were driving an older faded blue minivan. it's 5:21. the plans by one bay area city to stomp out bed bugs. [ female announcer ] this is the story of sam, who made an unexpected arrival. [ woman ] he was 4 months early, weighing 1 pound, 12 ounces.

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welcome back, everybody. how are you feeling on this election day, 2012. it is tuesday, november 6th. we take you across the country. this is in the midwest in ames, iowa. people out there doing their civic duty and getting out and voting as we speak. the polls opening up here in california in over an hour. be ready to do the same. 5:24 right now. san mateo county supervisors holding a final vote whether to ban plastic in most stores. apply to all retail shops including stores and pharmacies and not apply to bags used by restaurants for takeout food or produce, milk or bulk food or prescription drugs. a total of two dozen bay area cities are modeling similar bans after san mateo counties. holding a final vote today on new law to stop those. stomp out those nasty little bed bugs. the proposal would require pest control companies to report the

number of housing units treated. landlords would also be required to disclose a two-year bedbug history upon request of any new tenant and violators of the proposed law could be fined up to $1,000 per day. those are freaky little insects. >> if you're in bed this morning watching the news, i bet that got you out real quick. if not, the weather should. a gorgeous forecast today. let's check in with christina. >> slightly nicer than bed bugs on a tuesday. good morning to you, whatever it is that gets you out of bed, i want you to vote today. the weather will be spectacular, even if you have to wait in line. at the coast, hit 80 degrees and expected to break numerous records yet again today before temperatures tumble and we bring in the rain. very low snow levels, as well. we'll sort all that out for you coming up. first talk to mike about your drive.

>> we're looking at a lot more cars but you're still close to the limit. still just about 19-minute drive and not a major problem, but westbound is definitely your commute direction with those headlights. we'll look at the map and show you another commute spot. west 580 to trivalley and all looking pretty nice, but the yellow now creeping in speeds to 50s as you're passing towards livermore and 680. farther south shows you fremont. southbound 880 with headlights and they lit it up about 5:00 for the new auto mall. a new landmark and give you a mileage marker and it's kind of a clock, as well. for one time of the day. >> tharnks. 5:26, our election day coverage continues. what you need to know about today's local, state and national races. >> very nice. how about this, the driver of the muni bus that was attacked the night of the giants world series victory getting a very special honor today. all the details on that coming up.

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good morning, i'm christie smith live in oakland. more california voters are voting by mail. i'll tell you why some political observers think this is setting up two campaigns. and whether you're a republican, democrat, somewhere in between, the weather is going to be perfection. just about everywhere across the bay area. today near record-breaking warmth. changes just ahead. and as your commute starts to pick up around the bay this traffic tuesday, i'll have an update for that san jose accident coming up. a live look spanning over san francisco, christina telling us more warm temperatures to get out and get your votes. it is tuesday, november 6th, this is "today in the bay." it is almost 5:30, good morning, everybody. thank you for joining us on this election day, i'm jon kelley.

>> i'm laura garcia-cannon. voters have major changes to make to affect the states for years to come. one of the biggest issues on the ballot is proposition 30. it would raise the sale tax as well as income taxes for the highest earners. prison realignment, health care and education. >> california care about their kids, they care about schools, they care about the future. keep the california dream alive. yes on 30! thanks. >> the governor and other prominent politicians have been pushing hard in recent weeks to pass prop 30, but will their efforts make a difference? most californians have already mailed in their ballots. "today in the bay" christie smith joins us with more on the role absentee ballots are playing in this election. good morning. >> good morning. if you head out to the polls in 90 minutes and you have less company out there, you are right. in california, absentee voting

is huge. estimates is 50% of the voters use it. nationally the number is closer to about 20%. now, the law changed in 1972. and that allowed people to vote absentee on a permanent basis. since then, though, california has really embraced it. in 1970, 3.1% of voters cast their vote by mail. in 200024.5% voted absenstee. now, political observers believe that this is setting up two very different campaigns. one during the month before the election and another aimed at the election day voters. that makes last-minute polling, they're saying, very unpredictable and made campaigns much longer and much more expensive than before. candidates have to try and grab voters much earlier than before. the earlier someone votes, the

less likely they are to be influenced by all those ads you see at the very last minute. for this election, again, estimates are about half of california voters will vote by mail. reporting live in oakland, christie smith, "today in the bay." >> go live to ohio, the swing state they may play a very big deciding roll in tonight's election. a little closer to home, the investigative unit is monitoring polling stationed all across our area. if you have a problem, you're asked to please let us know about it. call our investigative tip line at 888-996-tips. or also send us an e-mail to e theunit@nbcbayarea.com. investigating all the reports of voter irregularity. remember nbc bay area is your home for election results. our live coverage of the national election starts at 4:00. local cut-ins throughout the night updating you on the local and state races and our newscast

tonight at 11:00 will have the results of all your local and state and national races. tomorrow morning "today in the bay" is your home for the election results. it could be a close one. it's 5:33. a muni bus driver set to receive a special award today. alan yam was driving his bus through downtown san francisco on the night of the giants world series celebration when rowdy fans started attacking that bus. one fan smashed the windshield and another setting it on fire. when that arrest started, yam got everyone off the bus safely. today, the mta will honor him for keeping everyone safe and staying calm through that ordeal. in the meantime, one of the alleged vandals now facing felony charges. 22-year-old gregory graniss pleaded not guilty in court yesterday. police believe he is had one that threw a barricade through the windshield of the bus. he is 1 of 12 people following charges following that rowdy world series celebration.

>> beyond ridiculous right there. it's going to be really nice is the weather. christina loren talking about another day in the 80s around the bay area. wow. >> very unusual to have august-like temperatures for the first full week of november, but, that maintains for today. going to be another warm day. if you have the day off, maybe you took the day off to vote, you could hit the beach comfortably. 57 degrees in san francisco and 55 in san jose and 51 degrees in livermore and our warm, sunny days are numbered. a storm system on the way that will drop our temperatures like a rock and bring in heavy periods of rain as we go through the end of the week. plentiful temperatures through the end of the week. fog and low clouds return. 10 to 15 degree drop off as the result. not even as low as we're expected to go as we get into thursday and friday highs inland ending up in the upper 50s. for today, enjoy close to 80 degrees inland.

and 82 bay side and 80 degrees at the coast. for today, for the last day, we'll take you through the changes. seven-day outlook ready to go in my next report and maybe you're ready to geto work. maybe you want to get in line to vote. mike is here to help you out. >> maybe, maybe not. we're looking over here. 101 is showing more cars. more volume kicking in. just the beginning of that first burst and plays out on the maps like this. not a lot of slowing on your northbound route for 101. 101/680 interchange and we have circles right here and see this change by the next report, that's predictable for tuesday, especially. the new update for accident northbound 101 at the old oakland road that has cleared from the roadway, but, look, we just see some slowing kicking up from 880 and, again, that's not unusual for this time of day. we're looking at the rest of the south bay and standard for traffic tuesday, except for this. north 87 from downtown we're seeing consistent traffic flow

here and this could be a concern for 85, as well. i'll track that carefully for you. see how things are shaping up for oakland. picking up the volume on the right side and northbound from the coliseum and through downtown and still close to 60 miles per hour throughout and the bay bridge toll plaza shows a backup for some of the cash lanes but not much of a backup and you are close to the limit, but coming down towards the 60 area mark and 55 as you come to the berkeley curve, guys. back to you. >> thank you so much. 5:36. our decision 2012 coverage continues, next. in depth break down of the presidential election, inclouding a prediction who will win from a local science professor. live to cincinnati, ohio, of possible election problems going on today. one of the biggest races, of course, the presidency. who will fill the white house in the coming year? it will be interesting with as close as the race has been so far. all your election watch is

happening right here on nbc bay area. a lot more ahead this morning. in fact, it's 5:37. stick around. ♪

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it is 5:39. welcome back, everybody. that is a live look at the shark tank here in san jose. the sharks not in action just yet, but there is some word that things could be progressing. talks between the owners and players are happening. another meeting set up for today. so, possibly some movement, but a lot of games have been canceled and we will, of course, keep you posted. 5:39 right now and a search, an early morning search is on for one bay area family and friends not giving up hope in finding a missing bay area hiker. today in the bay bob redell is live right now in redwood city where he just spoke to the man's family and he has new details about that search. bob, good morning. >> good morning to you there, john. we just spoke with kathleen

slider, she is the wife of george. he isry tired nuclear engineer. he is about 74 years old and he disappeared on sunday. want to throw this map up now for you, this is in aptos hills. he is at the retreat center. he is there for a church retreat and people saw him around 9:15 in the morning and after that he disappeared and they think he might have gone into the woods. they think he might have gone into the woods to take a walk or perhaps meditate and then when he realized he was running late to get back to where he was supposed to be his wife believes he was in such a rush he got disoriented. he became lost. he was cited around 10:30 about a mile or two away asking for directions to get back to the retreat center and that was the last time anyone saw him. >> we are actually very worried at this point. the first day we weren't worried

at all because we figured somebody would find him. we hope he's tired enough to sit still and let people come find him. >> the santa cruz sheriff's office has been putting together a search effort. they did this sunday, they did this monday and they will do it again today. they'll probably have around 50 volunteers they have been on horseback and with helicopter. kathleen slider and her family will be there later this morning. now, participating in the search itself because it is rugged but be there to show their support to get her husband to return, again. he's 7 4 years old. you saw the picture of him, white hair, 195 pounds, 5'11". reporting live, bob redell. decision 2012 and election day this morning after two years more than $2 billion spent to try to get your votes. polls opening up across the entire nation this morning, but, as we all know, this hasn't been smooth sailing the entire time

with voters in some states actually worried voting machines change their votes. "today in the bay" tracie potts is watching decision 2012 from cincinnati, ohio. of course, a key battleground state in this year's presidential election. tracie, good morning. >> filling out paper ballots here, hoping that won't be the case. at this polling place with three precincts it's been busy back and forth all day. they have 30, 40 people in line before they open the doors. 1.6 million people in the state voted early or cast election ballots. the election under way. in colorado, you're right, some concerns. some irregularities in early voting with some of the voting machines. they are apparently casting the vote for the candidate of the opposing party. they tried to duplicate that to figure out what was going on, but couldn't. the army of lawyers dispatched throughout these battleground states will certainly be watching that very closely.

if you're wondering about the result, we won't get them until later tonight, maybe early in the morning, maybe later, but, in dixville notch, new hampshire, early this morning, just after midnight they cast their ten votes for that town. they are traditionally among the first to cast their ballots on election day and, guess what, for the first time ever there was a tie. five votes for president obama and five votes for governor romney. if that's any indication of what we may be in for, we may be in for a very long night. jon? >> thank you very much, tracie. you thought you didn't have to report on that any more. we just saw what it looks like in ohio. argumentally the key of all swing states and both candidates well aware of this having visited the buckeye state dozens of times each. just how crucial ohio is. also a presidential prediction. >> that's right, laura. not my presidential prediction. this guy here with santa clara

university. the all-important ohio. president obama took ohio in 2008. now, if you are romney, you better hope that you win ohio's 18 electoral college votes because no republican has ever won the white house without taking ohio. why is ohio the swing state? >> ohio has been a major swing state for the last electoral cycles. partly because it's very close and very uncertain. the outcome we don't know. not like california or texas where we know which party is going to win. so, it's a battleground state because it's very close and it has a significant number of electoral votes. with 18 electoral votes, that could be the deciding factor in the election. both candidates have spend time and money in ohio. i have friends in ohio and they're so sick of the ads. they can't wait to get their televisions back and watch regular tv, again. >> if obama wins ohio, again, do you think it's because of his auto industry bailout.

>> he has been pressing the issue in his debates and campaign stops and how it has saved jobs in ohio. ohio's unemployment rate is lower than the national average and that is thought to be a factor in the small, but pers t persistent lead that he has in ohio. >> the popular vote is just meaningless. >> the popular vote is meaningless in that regard. you can ask al gore about the popular vote and that's not how we elect the president. it's based on a state-by-state series of contests. a method of aggregating those votes. you could theoretically lose the popular vote and win the presidential election, as al gore did in 2000. >> we were talking before off camera about the probability of polls that we're looking at. >> sure. >> seems to be a tight race to us, but other polls suggest otherwise. >> part of the reason there appears to be very tight race is that the national polls suggest it's about 50/50 between obama and romney. if we look at the national poll.

that's not how we elect the president. a number of statisticians who run probability models who has the greater possibility robabil winning the race. obama has a significant lead in those projections. they aggregate a number of polls. a wide range of polls, not just a single poll which has a margin of error that suggests it's probably a tie. when you aggregate these it increases the strength of the prediction and silver throws in a little extra, things like job numbers and things that typically relate to presidential election. >> we're not letting you off the hook. what is your prediction? >> hopefully i'm better at this than predicting nfl games which i'm terrible at. >> fantasy football. >> my prediction is that president obama will win with 203 electoral votes. that's based on the predictions i've seen. we'll see tomorrow. i'll be on the hook tomorrow and we'll see how well i do. >> thank you so much. jon? >> thank you very much. i like that he was on nose with his number.

303. we'll keep our eye on that. today people not just out there voting the next president of the united states, also weighing in on controversial topics. voters in maine, maryland and washington voting to legalize same-sex marriage. in minnesota people will be asked to amend the state constitution to ban gay marriage. in washington, colorado whether to legalize the use of recreational marijuana and in southern california, closer to home, los angeles voters deciding whether pornography stars should be required to use condoms while performing in adult films. everything you need to know on this election day right at your fingertips. head to our website nbcbayarea.com and your coverage starts early at 3:00. right now at 5:47 we get back with christina loren to talk about bad weather and some rain coming up. >> some rain and some snow.

>> full boat to float. everybody onboard and something for everyone on that ship as we cruise into the morning hours. i'll stop. 50 in napa and 57 degrees and mild in san francisco. 57 degrees. if you walk out your front door right now in san francisco, yeah, that's your high come thursday. so, it's going to be very, very cool. cloudy, even showers on the way thursday into friday. but for today, record heat continues. high pressure still in control driving our winds off shore for the first part of the day. area of low pressure racing towards the coastline. that will bring about significant changes starting tomorrow. almost a 10 to 15 degree drop off just through tomorrow and then as we head through thursday and friday, we have a winter weather advisory in place for the sierra nevada as snow levels tahoe area will fall to 2,500 feet. that is very low for this early in the season. slick conditions blowing snow, wind gusts, 40 to 60 miles per

hour. if you're headed to tahoe this weekend, make sure you have your chains or four-wheel drive ready to go. as we are expecting icy conditions. 86 for today and quite the contrary today. 86 in livermore and 80 degrees in fremont and 80 degrees in los gatos and 80en sane front. here's those changes. tuesday 86 and by tomorrow we shave off 10 to 15 degrees and by thursday we fall back into the 50s and friday periods of rain early and that's when snow levels will really drop off. friday will be the coolest day of the week. only 57 degrees in places like livermore and then saturday into sunday, the sun comes back out, but take a couple days for that cold air to mix out of the bay area. we'll be at about 68, close to 70 on monday. but major changes ahead. we'll talk about which cities have the best chance of breaking records today. first, check your drive it's 5:49 and getting a little busy out there. people heading out to vote. >> you know, probably a little early for that. people want to shift that

commute as the time change and, yeah, they might want to get out for a little extra time. a lot of jobs do allow that. if you have a question, ask your boss because they do need to give you time to vote, folks. first burst sticking around right here north of 680, 101 slow all the way up towards 880. that is predictable, especially on our traffic tuesday. i'm watching this, as well. north 87 and i saw slowing and stuck around for the last 15 minutes. i went on to twitter, facebook and slowing for highway 87 and i refreshed my maps and there it is. clearer than my throat. so, we have a smooth drive now north 87 and we'll track this over the next ten minutes and we think it will stick around and an issue for folks on 85, as well. that could cause early backup. we're watching the ripple effect and livermore, the trivalley pretty predictable pattern there. the earlier accident is still an issue for the onramp over here getting on to 880 but so far the traffic flow moving smoothly and increase in volume coming off.

the bay bridge toll plaza little backup at the toll plaza because the cash lanes are starting to back up. coming down through emeryville right here underneath univers y university. this is why one of the bay area's worst commutes. everybody funnels right here. back to you. it's 5:51. coming up, the new plan to charge some state college students higher fees. who could see their bills go up, next. how will wall street react to today's election? we'll look ahead in today in business. [ female announcer ] nature exists on the grandest scale... ♪ ...and in the tiniest details. ♪ and sometimes both. nature valley granola thins pack the big taste of granola and dark chocolate into one perfect square, under 100 calories. nature valley granola thins.

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tuition shik which would go into effect if prop 30 does not pass today. if prop 30 does pass, the fees will still take effect next year, but be much smaller and the fees, well, they would affect about 53,000 students in that csu system. 5:54. winning the world series having an impact on the city's economy. the city spent $225,000 to hold last week's victory parade.

the giants helped foot a million dollars for the remaining costs, but the city officials say the price was offset compliments of visitors spending between $18 million and $40 million during the entire championship playoff run. something still to celebrate there. 5:55. another reason for kids to stay home, once again, a new video game came out at midnight. although we're not encouraging it, scott mcgrew. >> you know the kids play these video games against each other on the internet over their x-boxes. so many people are expected to play this "halo 4" game today there is a measurable impact on the internet. a small, but significant number of bits of data moving back and forth today will be the data from video games and laser guns. "halo 3" is a billion dollar franchise and one of microsoft's most successful products. in fact, one of the best jumps the company has ever seen

after they announced ramped up production of its model s sedan going from making a few dozen a month to a planned 400 cars a month. the ceo says the company has turned the corner and the worst days is behind it. should be a quiet day in general on wall street. election day usually is unless there is some kind of giant problem with voting, knock on wood. obviously, if governor romney wins, many changes in washington, but, really, that's true if mr. obama wins, as well. the secretary of the treasury has indicated he will move on after the election and often times we see a shuffling of the cabinet and wall street will be interested in that either way. >> they'll react. thank you very much, scott. big nows out of hollywood. get this sources close to lucas films says harrison ford is all set to reprise his role in a star wars sequel that was announced. ford said in the past that solo

was one of his least favorite roles and wanted the character to be killed off back in 1983 when "return of the jedi" was released. played luke skywalker and princess laa in that original trilldy. they have also said they're willing to sign on for an encore appearance in that brand-new film maybe a medicare or medicaid version. a new film is set for tentative release in 2015. looks like they'll do another trilogy. more election coverage, thead, stick around. last crescent. oh, did you want it? yea we'll split it. [ female announcer ] made fresh, so light, buttery and flakey. that's half that's not half! guys, i have more! thanks mom [ female announcer ] pillsbury crescents. let the making begin too bad the guys aren't here we're clear. ok, swarm! swarm! hello

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i have a clear and unequivocal message. with the right leadership, america will come roaring back. >> let's go vote! let's keep moving forward! god bless you and god bless the united states of america.